What happened to the stock markets in 2020 in the so-called COVID-19 crisis?
Take away on COVID-19 crisis
Retail (led by Amazon, Lowe, and Delivery heroes), Technology services (led by Paypal, Adobe, Salesforces, Facebook, and Google), and Consumer Services (led by Netflix and Vivendi) are the sectors the gained the most from the COVID-19 crisis. This result seems natural given the nature of consumers’ and companies’ activities regarding the shutdown. Note how retail is the sector with less impact on jumps (fluctuations) which means that this increase in value has been organic.
Finance and Non-Durables (Beiersdorf, Adidas, Coca Cola, and LVMH) are the most negatively impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. Unsurprisingly, the former sector reaction is naturally is not a surprise since finance is frontally linked to the overall economic uncertainty. In fact, this can be depicted by the increase of % of daily jumps which the most import important among all sectors. However, the latter sector negative reaction is due to the shutdown (shops and indirect shopping localisations like theaters closing that impacted Coca Cola sales) and may surprisingly suggest that online sales are not the main source of value and not enough grown-up, as it may be for retail pure players, for this sector.
Method
Infographics notes in details
(a) Jumps
A jump is a daily negative or positive return greater than 2.5% defined by Baker et al. 2020 in NBER Working Paper 26945 as a measure of market fluctuations.
Example :
- returns are : [-3%, -1%, 4%, 0.5%, 2%],
- jumps are : [True, False, True, False, False],
- the % of jumps in this period is 2/5 = 40%
(b) Missing stocks
1COV, FME, and MTX are missing from DAX30, and LR, URW, BN, DSY, and ENGI are missing from CAC40 for data availability reasons. The point is that there is good reason to believe that this missingness is at random, at least given the research question, and thus there is no reason to believe that there is a selection process that may introduce some bias in results.
(c) Reading example
For Retail Trade 7 companies :
- return is 31% in the 2020 period and 15% in the 2019 period, so the return increased by 16% ;
- % of daily jumps is 13% in the 2020 period and 2.8% in the 2019 period, so the % of jumps increased by 9%.
Note that the reported figures are the difference between what happened in March to October 2020 vs March to October 2019. See intermediate results for more examples.
Intermediate results
COVID-19 crisis effect on companies
Company’s 2020 return | Company’s 2020 jumps | Company’s 2019 returns | Company’s 2019 jump | Sector | Company Name | Company’s 2020 return – 2019 return | Company’s 2020 jumps – 2019 jumps | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MC-FP | 0.084805 | 0.114286 | 0.288907 | 0.051136 | Consumer Non-Durables | LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE | -0.204102 | 0.063149 |
SAN-FP | -0.078160 | 0.045714 | 0.109796 | 0.034091 | Health Technology | Sanofi | -0.187956 | 0.011623 |
FP-FP | -0.327254 | 0.137143 | -0.044809 | 0.034091 | Energy Minerals | Total SE | -0.282445 | 0.103052 |
OR-FP | 0.152282 | 0.057143 | 0.173502 | 0.028409 | Consumer Non-Durables | L\’Oreal SA | -0.021219 | 0.028734 |
AI-FP | 0.021155 | 0.074286 | 0.188303 | 0.022727 | Process Industries | Air Liquide SA | -0.167147 | 0.051558 |
SU-FP | 0.151381 | 0.114286 | 0.229465 | 0.039773 | Producer Manufacturing | Schneider Electric SE | -0.078084 | 0.074513 |
KER-FP | 0.025109 | 0.120000 | 0.072693 | 0.068182 | Consumer Non-Durables | Kering SA | -0.047584 | 0.051818 |
AIR-FP | -0.420999 | 0.274286 | 0.144190 | 0.045455 | Electronic Technology | Airbus SE | -0.565189 | 0.228831 |
EL-FP | -0.137287 | 0.137143 | 0.278065 | 0.028409 | Health Technology | EssilorLuxottica SA | -0.415352 | 0.108734 |
DG-FP | -0.254561 | 0.160000 | 0.212464 | 0.011364 | Industrial Services | VINCI SA | -0.467026 | 0.148636 |
BNP-FP | -0.317953 | 0.188571 | 0.047059 | 0.056818 | Finance | BNP Paribas SA Class A | -0.365012 | 0.131753 |
CS-FP | -0.341289 | 0.114286 | 0.068610 | 0.017045 | Finance | AXA SA | -0.409899 | 0.097240 |
SAF-FP | -0.270588 | 0.205714 | 0.193495 | 0.028409 | Electronic Technology | Safran S.A. | -0.464083 | 0.177305 |
RI-FP | -0.054645 | 0.057143 | 0.084544 | 0.022727 | Consumer Non-Durables | Pernod Ricard SA | -0.139189 | 0.034416 |
RMS-FP | 0.268254 | 0.091429 | 0.170618 | 0.028409 | Consumer Non-Durables | Hermes International SCA | 0.097636 | 0.063019 |
VIV-FP | 0.076890 | 0.085714 | -0.027237 | 0.017045 | Consumer Services | Vivendi SA | 0.104127 | 0.068669 |
CAP-FP | -0.000806 | 0.148571 | -0.027091 | 0.062500 | Technology Services | Capgemini SE | 0.026285 | 0.086071 |
SGO-FP | 0.060127 | 0.142857 | 0.168035 | 0.056818 | Producer Manufacturing | Compagnie de Saint-Gobain SA | -0.107909 | 0.086039 |
STM-FP | 0.071282 | 0.177143 | 0.443981 | 0.113636 | Electronic Technology | STMicroelectronics NV | -0.372698 | 0.063506 |
ORA-FP | -0.210008 | 0.080000 | 0.070685 | 0.011364 | Communications | Orange SA | -0.280693 | 0.068636 |
ML-FP | -0.037406 | 0.125714 | 0.054028 | 0.056818 | Consumer Durables | Compagnie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SCA | -0.091435 | 0.068896 |
TEP-FP | 0.172429 | 0.137143 | 0.292994 | 0.028409 | Commercial Services | Teleperformance SE | -0.120564 | 0.108734 |
WLN-FP | -0.075672 | 0.160000 | 0.086780 | 0.073864 | Commercial Services | Worldline SA | -0.162452 | 0.086136 |
VIE-FP | -0.383340 | 0.148571 | 0.213472 | 0.022727 | Utilities | Veolia Environnement SA | -0.596811 | 0.125844 |
GLE-FP | -0.545135 | 0.274286 | -0.042222 | 0.068182 | Finance | Societe Generale S.A. Class A | -0.502913 | 0.206104 |
ACA-FP | -0.372803 | 0.205714 | 0.048085 | 0.068182 | Finance | Credit Agricole SA | -0.420888 | 0.137532 |
UG-FP | -0.118286 | 0.205714 | 0.044723 | 0.079545 | Consumer Durables | Peugeot SA | -0.163008 | 0.126169 |
CA-FP | -0.145780 | 0.114286 | -0.155000 | 0.028409 | Retail Trade | Carrefour SA | 0.009220 | 0.085877 |
ALO-FP | -0.135087 | 0.114286 | 0.015437 | 0.017045 | Producer Manufacturing | Alstom SA | -0.150523 | 0.097240 |
MT-NA | -0.092679 | 0.211429 | -0.305789 | 0.187500 | Non-Energy Minerals | ArcelorMittal SA | 0.213110 | 0.023929 |
HO-FP | -0.384581 | 0.188571 | -0.198891 | 0.034091 | Electronic Technology | Thales SA | -0.185690 | 0.154481 |
ATO-FP | -0.129272 | 0.125714 | 0.066189 | 0.068182 | Technology Services | Atos SE | -0.195461 | 0.057532 |
EN-FP | -0.206595 | 0.165714 | 0.156692 | 0.017045 | Industrial Services | Bouygues SA | -0.363287 | 0.148669 |
PUB-FP | -0.148085 | 0.200000 | -0.202339 | 0.045455 | Commercial Services | Publicis Groupe SA | 0.054255 | 0.154545 |
RNO-FP | -0.198113 | 0.257143 | -0.224141 | 0.062500 | Consumer Durables | Renault SA | 0.026028 | 0.194643 |
ADS-GY | 0.017761 | 0.142857 | 0.310861 | 0.045455 | Consumer Non-Durables | adidas AG | -0.293100 | 0.097403 |
ALV-GY | -0.224538 | 0.114286 | 0.122955 | 0.011364 | Finance | Allianz SE | -0.347493 | 0.102922 |
BAS-GY | -0.113225 | 0.137143 | 0.030004 | 0.045455 | Process Industries | BASF SE | -0.143230 | 0.091688 |
BAYN-GY | -0.381077 | 0.148571 | -0.005407 | 0.085227 | Health Technology | Bayer AG | -0.375670 | 0.063344 |
BEI-GY | -0.052687 | 0.068571 | 0.283104 | 0.000000 | Consumer Non-Durables | Beiersdorf AG | -0.335792 | 0.068571 |
BMW-GY | -0.004242 | 0.160000 | -0.065536 | 0.028409 | Consumer Durables | Bayerische Motoren Werke AG | 0.061294 | 0.131591 |
CON-GY | -0.101752 | 0.171429 | -0.147778 | 0.102273 | Producer Manufacturing | Continental AG | 0.046026 | 0.069156 |
DAI-GY | 0.182738 | 0.154286 | 0.000760 | 0.073864 | Consumer Durables | Daimler AG | 0.181979 | 0.080422 |
DB1-GY | -0.110524 | 0.097143 | 0.258326 | 0.011364 | Finance | Deutsche Boerse AG | -0.368850 | 0.085779 |
DBK-GY | 0.002538 | 0.177143 | -0.192402 | 0.119318 | Finance | Deutsche Bank AG | 0.194940 | 0.057825 |
DHER-GY | 0.452647 | 0.148571 | 0.218603 | 0.051136 | Retail Trade | Delivery Hero SE | 0.234044 | 0.097435 |
DPW-GY | 0.402655 | 0.102857 | 0.177160 | 0.022727 | Transportation | Deutsche Post AG | 0.225495 | 0.080130 |
DTE-GY | -0.114499 | 0.080000 | 0.078729 | 0.005682 | Communications | Deutsche Telekom AG | -0.193228 | 0.074318 |
DWNI-GY | 0.188426 | 0.085714 | -0.167317 | 0.056818 | Finance | Deutsche Wohnen SE | 0.355743 | 0.028896 |
EOAN-GY | -0.141898 | 0.097143 | -0.071207 | 0.017045 | Utilities | E.ON SE | -0.070691 | 0.080097 |
FRE-GY | -0.249234 | 0.148571 | -0.033583 | 0.062500 | Health Technology | Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA | -0.215651 | 0.086071 |
HEI-GY | -0.087667 | 0.165714 | 0.045173 | 0.039773 | Non-Energy Minerals | HeidelbergCement AG | -0.132840 | 0.125942 |
HEN3-GY | -0.001912 | 0.091429 | 0.070128 | 0.022727 | Consumer Non-Durables | Henkel AG & Co. KGaA Pref | -0.072040 | 0.068701 |
IFX-GY | 0.271953 | 0.154286 | -0.077720 | 0.113636 | Electronic Technology | Infineon Technologies AG | 0.349673 | 0.040649 |
LIN-GY | 0.095779 | 0.125714 | 0.163613 | 0.034091 | Process Industries | Linde plc | -0.067834 | 0.091623 |
MRK-GY | 0.165979 | 0.097143 | 0.195748 | 0.017045 | Health Technology | Merck KGaA | -0.029769 | 0.080097 |
MUV2-GY | -0.129606 | 0.102857 | 0.204732 | 0.011364 | Finance | Munich Reinsurance Company | -0.334338 | 0.091494 |
RWE-GY | 0.020218 | 0.114286 | 0.293569 | 0.017045 | Utilities | RWE AG | -0.273351 | 0.097240 |
SAP-GY | -0.179903 | 0.125714 | 0.269851 | 0.034091 | Technology Services | SAP SE | -0.449755 | 0.091623 |
SIE-GY | 0.080472 | 0.102857 | 0.091647 | 0.039773 | Producer Manufacturing | Siemens AG | -0.011175 | 0.063084 |
VNA-GY | 0.128448 | 0.080000 | 0.112570 | 0.028409 | Finance | Vonovia SE | 0.015878 | 0.051591 |
VOW3-GY | -0.158029 | 0.142857 | 0.144467 | 0.034091 | Consumer Durables | Volkswagen AG Pref | -0.302496 | 0.108766 |
AAPL | 0.592918 | 0.152047 | 0.477477 | 0.040698 | Electronic Technology | Apple Inc. | 0.115440 | 0.111349 |
MSFT | 0.249738 | 0.134503 | 0.282871 | 0.046512 | Technology Services | Microsoft Corporation | -0.033133 | 0.087991 |
AMZN | 0.611758 | 0.128655 | 0.092455 | 0.040698 | Retail Trade | Amazon.com, Inc. | 0.519304 | 0.087957 |
FB | 0.367018 | 0.152047 | 0.199257 | 0.046512 | Technology Services | Facebook, Inc. Class A | 0.167762 | 0.105535 |
GOOGL | 0.206728 | 0.128655 | 0.129333 | 0.040698 | Technology Services | Alphabet Inc. Class A | 0.077395 | 0.087957 |
GOOG | 0.210314 | 0.128655 | 0.137349 | 0.040698 | Technology Services | Alphabet Inc. Class C | 0.072965 | 0.087957 |
BRK.B | -0.021518 | 0.099415 | 0.072181 | 0.005814 | Finance | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B | -0.093699 | 0.093601 |
JNJ | 0.019557 | 0.081871 | -0.039813 | 0.023256 | Health Technology | Johnson & Johnson | 0.059369 | 0.058616 |
PG | 0.210810 | 0.076023 | 0.256925 | 0.011628 | Consumer Non-Durables | Procter & Gamble Company | -0.046116 | 0.064395 |
NVDA | 0.856408 | 0.181287 | 0.313302 | 0.104651 | Electronic Technology | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.543105 | 0.076635 |
V | -0.000275 | 0.128655 | 0.221510 | 0.034884 | Finance | Visa Inc. Class A | -0.221785 | 0.093771 |
JPM | -0.155628 | 0.222222 | 0.224607 | 0.029070 | Finance | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | -0.380235 | 0.193152 |
HD | 0.224339 | 0.093567 | 0.281949 | 0.011628 | Retail Trade | Home Depot, Inc. | -0.057610 | 0.081939 |
UNH | 0.196815 | 0.122807 | 0.041243 | 0.046512 | Health Services | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 0.155572 | 0.076295 |
MA | -0.005547 | 0.163743 | 0.241491 | 0.046512 | Finance | Mastercard Incorporated Class A | -0.247038 | 0.117231 |
VZ | 0.052253 | 0.052632 | 0.060611 | 0.017442 | Communications | Verizon Communications Inc. | -0.008359 | 0.035190 |
PYPL | 0.723586 | 0.192982 | 0.070460 | 0.069767 | Technology Services | PayPal Holdings Inc | 0.653126 | 0.123215 |
NFLX | 0.289163 | 0.157895 | -0.199078 | 0.075581 | Consumer Services | Netflix, Inc. | 0.488242 | 0.082313 |
ADBE | 0.295491 | 0.175439 | 0.058362 | 0.046512 | Technology Services | Adobe Inc. | 0.237130 | 0.128927 |
DIS | 0.030599 | 0.152047 | 0.176445 | 0.029070 | Consumer Services | Walt Disney Company | -0.145845 | 0.122977 |
CRM | 0.363087 | 0.157895 | -0.023892 | 0.081395 | Technology Services | salesforce.com, inc. | 0.386979 | 0.076499 |
CMCSA | 0.044769 | 0.134503 | 0.157228 | 0.011628 | Consumer Services | Comcast Corporation Class A | -0.112459 | 0.122875 |
PFE | 0.061640 | 0.081871 | -0.114418 | 0.040698 | Health Technology | Pfizer Inc. | 0.176057 | 0.041174 |
WMT | 0.288540 | 0.058480 | 0.188201 | 0.005814 | Retail Trade | Walmart Inc. | 0.100339 | 0.052666 |
MRK | -0.017633 | 0.081871 | 0.044901 | 0.029070 | Health Technology | Merck & Co., Inc. | -0.062534 | 0.052802 |
T | -0.232822 | 0.116959 | 0.251607 | 0.017442 | Communications | AT&T Inc. | -0.484429 | 0.099517 |
INTC | -0.202450 | 0.134503 | 0.067032 | 0.058140 | Electronic Technology | Intel Corporation | -0.269481 | 0.076363 |
TMO | 0.626960 | 0.087719 | 0.169627 | 0.046512 | Health Technology | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.457333 | 0.041208 |
ABT | 0.364533 | 0.093567 | 0.064932 | 0.046512 | Health Technology | Abbott Laboratories | 0.299602 | 0.047056 |
KO | -0.101514 | 0.122807 | 0.188796 | 0.005814 | Consumer Non-Durables | Coca-Cola Company | -0.290310 | 0.116993 |
PEP | 0.009543 | 0.081871 | 0.184106 | 0.005814 | Consumer Non-Durables | PepsiCo, Inc. | -0.174563 | 0.076057 |
BAC | -0.168421 | 0.239766 | 0.093535 | 0.052326 | Finance | Bank of America Corp | -0.261956 | 0.187441 |
COST | 0.272035 | 0.046784 | 0.353616 | 0.011628 | Retail Trade | Costco Wholesale Corporation | -0.081581 | 0.035156 |
MCD | 0.096977 | 0.070175 | 0.054939 | 0.017442 | Consumer Services | McDonald\’s Corporation | 0.042038 | 0.052734 |
NKE | 0.343477 | 0.128655 | 0.040243 | 0.046512 | Consumer Non-Durables | NIKE, Inc. Class B | 0.303235 | 0.082143 |
CSCO | -0.100927 | 0.122807 | -0.091559 | 0.063953 | Technology Services | Cisco Systems, Inc. | -0.009368 | 0.058854 |
DHR | 0.587633 | 0.070175 | 0.075185 | 0.040698 | Health Technology | Danaher Corporation | 0.512448 | 0.029478 |
NEE | 0.158569 | 0.099415 | 0.255700 | 0.000000 | Utilities | NextEra Energy, Inc. | -0.097131 | 0.099415 |
QCOM | 0.575479 | 0.146199 | 0.565462 | 0.069767 | Electronic Technology | Qualcomm Inc | 0.010017 | 0.076431 |
ABBV | -0.007117 | 0.070175 | 0.031676 | 0.029070 | Health Technology | AbbVie, Inc. | -0.038793 | 0.041106 |
AVGO | 0.282481 | 0.140351 | 0.077099 | 0.075581 | Electronic Technology | Broadcom Inc. | 0.205382 | 0.064769 |
XOM | -0.365863 | 0.198830 | -0.119322 | 0.023256 | Energy Minerals | Exxon Mobil Corporation | -0.246541 | 0.175575 |
ACN | 0.201119 | 0.152047 | 0.166316 | 0.029070 | Technology Services | Accenture Plc Class A | 0.034803 | 0.122977 |
MDT | -0.000993 | 0.116959 | 0.199669 | 0.005814 | Health Technology | Medtronic Plc | -0.200662 | 0.111145 |
TXN | 0.266778 | 0.152047 | 0.115901 | 0.046512 | Electronic Technology | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 0.150877 | 0.105535 |
CVX | -0.255410 | 0.175439 | -0.028182 | 0.029070 | Energy Minerals | Chevron Corporation | -0.227228 | 0.146369 |
BMY | -0.010328 | 0.058480 | 0.106465 | 0.029070 | Health Technology | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | -0.116794 | 0.029410 |
AMGN | 0.086166 | 0.105263 | 0.146622 | 0.046512 | Health Technology | Amgen Inc. | -0.060456 | 0.058752 |
LOW | 0.483532 | 0.087719 | 0.074793 | 0.046512 | Retail Trade | Lowe\’s Companies, Inc. | 0.408739 | 0.041208 |
UNP | 0.108754 | 0.105263 | 0.028801 | 0.052326 | Transportation | Union Pacific Corporation | 0.079953 | 0.052938 |
COVID-19 crisis effect on sectors
Sector | Sector’s 2020 return – 2019 return | Sector’s 2020 jumps – 2019 jumps | Sector’s 2020 return | Sector’s 2020 jumps | Sector’s 2019 return | Sector’s 2019 jumps | Number of Companies in the sector |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commercial Services | -0.076254 | 0.116472 | -0.017109 | 0.165714 | 0.059145 | 0.049242 | 3 |
Communications | -0.241677 | 0.069415 | -0.126269 | 0.082398 | 0.115408 | 0.012982 | 4 |
Consumer Durables | -0.047940 | 0.118415 | -0.055556 | 0.174286 | -0.007617 | 0.055871 | 6 |
Consumer Non-Durables | -0.101929 | 0.067950 | 0.075107 | 0.096018 | 0.177036 | 0.028068 | 12 |
Consumer Services | 0.075220 | 0.089914 | 0.107680 | 0.120067 | 0.032459 | 0.030153 | 5 |
Electronic Technology | -0.043877 | 0.106896 | 0.148971 | 0.173312 | 0.192848 | 0.066416 | 11 |
Energy Minerals | -0.252072 | 0.141665 | -0.316176 | 0.170471 | -0.064104 | 0.028805 | 3 |
Finance | -0.225836 | 0.111756 | -0.138255 | 0.152920 | 0.087581 | 0.041165 | 15 |
Health Services | 0.155572 | 0.076295 | 0.196815 | 0.122807 | 0.041243 | 0.046512 | 1 |
Health Technology | -0.013255 | 0.057374 | 0.068709 | 0.095006 | 0.081964 | 0.037632 | 15 |
Industrial Services | -0.415156 | 0.148653 | -0.230578 | 0.162857 | 0.184578 | 0.014205 | 2 |
Non-Energy Minerals | 0.040135 | 0.074935 | -0.090173 | 0.188571 | -0.130308 | 0.113636 | 2 |
Process Industries | -0.126070 | 0.078290 | 0.001236 | 0.112381 | 0.127307 | 0.034091 | 3 |
Producer Manufacturing | -0.060333 | 0.078006 | 0.011028 | 0.129143 | 0.071361 | 0.051136 | 5 |
Retail Trade | 0.161779 | 0.068891 | 0.312439 | 0.096866 | 0.150660 | 0.027975 | 7 |
Technology Services | 0.080727 | 0.092928 | 0.183848 | 0.145419 | 0.103120 | 0.052491 | 12 |
Transportation | 0.152724 | 0.066534 | 0.255705 | 0.104060 | 0.102981 | 0.037526 | 2 |
Utilities | -0.259496 | 0.100649 | -0.086613 | 0.114854 | 0.172883 | 0.014205 | 4 |
Sources
- Stocks quotations and sector data are from IEX Cloud.
- Baker et al. 2020 in NBER Working Paper 26945
- More readings on the COVID-19 crisis here, here, and here.